As the international community responds to the October 9, 2006, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear test, one country outside northeast Asia that may be significantly affected by the nuclear detonation is India -- one of the last states to test nuclear weapons (in 1998) prior to the DPRK. In particular, Indian analysts and the Indian press have expressed concern regarding the potential for the North Korean test to negatively impact the conclusion of the U.S.-Indian agreement on civilian nuclear cooperation. That agreement is poised to grant India an exemption from the international rules prohibiting transfers of nuclear technology to states outside the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a treaty that India has never joined.

India reacted to the North Korean test by immediately condemning it, and pointing out differences between the manner in which India obtained its nuclear weapons capability and the secretive and clandestine means used by the DPRK – and Pakistan – to acquire their nuclear arsenals. While Pakistan also criticized Pyongyang’s decision to test as “regrettable,” there appeared to be little concern in the Pakistani press regarding possible repercussions of the event for Islamabad. Senior columnists in the Indian press, however, wrote extensively on its potential adverse impacts for New Delhi. [1]

Strong Indian Stand Against North Korean Test
Responding on the day of the North Korean detonation, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in a joint news conference with British Prime Minister Tony Blair in London, expressed India’s “deep concern” over the test. [2] Although, India has refused to join the NPT and has, in the past, criticized the Treaty as a discriminatory regime, Singh stressed that the test was, “a violation of [North Korea’s] international commitments,” and stated that, “a further erosion of the non-proliferation regime is not in our interest.”

In holding Pyongyang directly and solely accountable for the test and the resulting damage to the nonproliferation regime, India diverged from the stance of the 118-member Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), of which it is a prominent member. The group expressed concern regarding the test, but also asserted that the test, “underscores the need to work even more vigorously toward the movement’s goals of disarmament, including the elimination of nuclear weapons.” [3] While India has also been critical of the discriminatory nature of the NPT regime and historically has shared the NAM’s promotion of global nuclear disarmament, it refrained from making the linkage between the DPRK’s test and the stimulus for new states to acquire nuclear arms provided by the arsenals of the existing nuclear powers. [4] Moreover, by couching its condemnation, in part, on North Korea’s undermining of the non-proliferation regime, India also demonstrated its slow but unmistakable shift from a defiant nonproliferation-regime outlier country -- the status it reaffirmed when it tested nuclear weapons in 1998 -- to a country that seeks to uphold the integrity of the regime and perceives itself as benefiting from it. It remains to be seen, however, how far India will take its new attitude and, in particular, whether New Delhi will take as principled a pro-nonproliferation stand with respect to halting the Iranian nuclear program, as it has with North Korea, given the economic ties between India and Iran.

Limiting Impact on the U.S.-India Nuclear Agreement
North Korea’s test came at a time when the U.S. Congress was considering legislation to implement the Joint Statement signed by President George W. Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, on July 18, 2005, which would end a decades-long embargo on U.S. civil nuclear cooperation with New Delhi and pave the way for the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group to end a similar embargo imposed in 1992. By causing the international community to condemn and stigmatize the entrance of another state into the small group of countries possessing nuclear weapons beyond the five original “Nuclear Weapon States” recognized by the NPT, a group of late arrivals that includes India, the North Korean test inevitably undercuts New Delhi’s efforts to legitimize itself as an accepted nuclear-weapon power. [5]

In an October 11, 2006, Op-Ed in the Hindu, Siddharth Varadarajan made the point directly, arguing that, “Pyongyang’s test of a nuclear weapon has immensely complicated India’s quest for assimilation in the existing nuclear order.” [6] Writing two days earlier, former Indian diplomat M.K. Bhradrakumar detailed some of these complications, positing that, because of the DPRK test, “The likelihood is that the nuclear non-proliferation lobby in the U.S. which opposes the [U.S.-India] nuclear deal will get a further fillip.” [7] Bhradrakumar further asserted that the challenge from North Korea will limit the Bush
Administration’s ability to push the deal through the U.S. Congress. He therefore called for India to harmonize its stance on North Korea with that of the United States in order stave off criticism of India from non-proliferation advocates. Similarly, other Indian press accounts have expressed the fear that in light of heightened proliferation concerns following the test, the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) may be unwilling to approve changes in its rules sought by the United States to permit nuclear trade with India. [8]

In order to allay Indian fears regarding any hindrance the North Korean test might pose for the U.S.-India deal, on October 12, U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns reaffirmed the Bush Administration’s commitment to carrying out the agreement with India, drawing sharp distinctions between India and North Korea:

India is a peaceful, democratic, law-abiding leader of the international community. North Korea is the reverse of all that, and so there is great trust in commitments that the Indian government made to us will be fulfilled and we are very confident that the India deal will be approved by a substantial margin [in the U.S. Senate]. [9]

Peter Crail—Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies