On December 11, 2006, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, in comments during a live television broadcast in Germany, listed Israel as a country possessing nuclear weapons, departing from decades of official Israeli ambiguity on the matter. Speaking on relations with Iran, Olmert noted that Israel had never threatened to destroy any country, while Iran overtly threatened to destroy Israel. Olmert went on to say that Iran is “aspiring to have nuclear weapons as America, France, Israel, Russia.” [1]

The Prime Minister’s office immediately sought to clarify Olmert’s statement by declaring it did not represent a change in Israel’s traditional silence regarding its nuclear program and that he “had meant to categorize the four nations as democracies to set them apart from Iran, and was not referring to their potential nuclear capabilities or aspirations.” [2] Nonetheless Olmert’s words reverberated widely in the Arab world, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary General Abderrahman Al-Attiya immediately demanding that the United Nations impose sanctions against Israel. [3] Many Arab observers speculated that Olmert’s statement was an intentional effort to remind the region of Israel’s military might.

The day after Olmert’s remarks, for example, Anwar Salih Al Khateeb, writing in the independent Qatari newspaper Al Rayah, argued that Olmert was seeking to restore Israel’s image as an unbeatable military power after the setbacks it had suffered in the July-August 2006 war against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The fact that “missiles were able to strike deep into Israeli territory,” he noted, “undermines Israel’s security strategy and made Israel in need of a new deterrent to terrorize its neighbors.” [4]

Journalist Hossam Abdelhameed, in another Al Rayah article three days later, similarly argued that the purpose behind Olmert’s words was “to regain the lost prestige of the invincible Israeli armed forces after its defeat in Lebanon.” [5] Reinforcing his view that Olmert had intended to bolster Israeli deterrence by his remark, Abdelhameed noted that the Israeli’s comment had come conspicuously soon after U.S. Secretary of Defense-designate Robert Gates, during his December 6 confirmation hearing, had also stated that Israel possessed nuclear arms. Abdelhameed went on to suggest that Olmert was also seeking to counterbalance growing interest among Arab states in developing civilian nuclear programs that might one day provide the capacity to produce nuclear weapons. “There is a connection between the U.S. Defense Secretary’s statement referring to Israel having nuclear weapons and Mr. Olmert’s declaration,” Abdelhameed wrote, “especially since the latter came one day after the Gulf States announced at the Riyadh Gulf Cooperation Council summit that they have the right to build peaceful nuclear programs.” [6] Abdelhameed noted that, in view of Iran’s on-going nuclear advances, Olmert’s declaration greatly exacerbated Arab concerns that they might become the only grouping in the Middle East lacking nuclear arms. Thus Olmert’s statement would force Arab states to reconsider their renunciation of such weapons. [7] On January 13, 2007, the GCC announced that it would launch a peaceful nuclear program, a step that could eventually create a capability for the production of nuclear weapons. [8]

Mohammed Said Idriss, an analyst at the Cairo Center for Strategic and Political Studies, focused on U.S. policy in light of the Olmert statement. Writing in the moderate UAE-based newspaper Al-Khaleej on December 15, 2006, he stated Arab states are concerned that the “U.S. will first attempt to force the international community to recognize Israel as a nuclear weapon state and then, it will include it in the ‘Nuclear Club’ along with India and Pakistan, thus expanding the ‘Club’ to eight member-states.” [9] He added that if Israel is recognized as an accepted nuclear weapon state, any Arab call for a Middle East Nuclear Weapon Free Zone would only call upon Iran and other states in the region to disarm, while excluding Israel. [10]

On December 17, 2006, Issam Nu’man, a contributor to the Lebanese nationalist daily Al-Balad, echoed similar concerns about Washington. The fact that Olmert’s lapse came so soon after Gates’s similar remark, he wrote, suggested that the United States, which for decades had urged Israel to keep its nuclear capabilities hidden, was revising its stance on the matter. [11] He went on to suggest that Olmert’s words were also intended as a warning to the West that if it did not slow Iran’s nuclear advances, Israel would do so. [12]

Samir Awad, head of the political science department at Birzeit University in the West Bank, suggested that Olmert’s revelation was intended to enhance Israeli leverage to counter other threatening developments in the region, in particular, the prospect that Iran will continue to pursue its nuclear program without significant impediments and that pressures will mount on Israel to make concessions to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. [13]

On December 18, 2006, Mohammed Sabeeh, the Arab League’s Assistant Secretary-General for Palestinian and Occupied Arab Lands, joined the chorus of those believing Olmert’s remark was not a slip. He was quoted in the independent Egyptian newspaper Al Masry-Alyoum as stating that the comment of the Israeli Prime Minister was, in fact, a “trial balloon and a message that will be followed by new measures.” [14] He went on to predict that Israel would abandon its nuclear ambiguity and impose itself on the region as a declared nuclear state. [15]

Whether or not Olmert’s comment was purposeful, it clearly had the effect of focusing Arab attention on Israel’s nuclear capabilities. This may have enhanced Israeli deterrence by underscoring that Israel remains many steps ahead of its potential nuclear adversaries in the region. At the same time, however, the episode is likely to reinforce the interest of a number of Arab states in pursuing nuclear programs that potentially could provide commensurate military capabilities.

On January 7, 2007, the Sunday Times (London) reported that Israeli pilots were training for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities that would employ low-yield nuclear weapons. [16] Israel promptly denied the report. [17] Nonetheless, Arab observers, recalling the Olmert and earlier Gates comments, are likely to see the story as further evidence that the continued rattling of Israel’s nuclear saber is not accidental.

Khalid Hilal, Gina Cabrera-Farra - Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies