On October 10, 2007, Taiwan held its first National Day military parade in 16 years, during a period of strained relations between Beijing and Taipei. The event was held on the heels of a bid by Taiwanese President Chen Shuibian to regain a seat for the island in the United Nations (UN) under the name “Taiwan” and at a time of increased tension over Taiwan’s development of increasingly capable missiles.

Until 1991, military parades were a regular part of the National Day festivities. The decision to discontinue the parade in 1991 coincided with a general move towards democracy on the island, which began when Taiwan’s Kuomintang government lifted martial law in 1987. The decision was partly due to pressure from the then-opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which opposed the parades as an unnecessary expense. The ending of the annual parades was also seen as a way of softening the island’s anti-China rhetoric at a time when the two sides appeared serious about improving relations across the Taiwan Strait. The decision by the current DPP-led government to hold the parade this year – the last year for the outgoing pro-independence Chen to preside over the event – may be an ominous sign, however, that current cross-Strait tensions are likely to continue.

Showing-Off Home Grown Weaponry
The main attraction of this year’s parade for local spectators and military observers both inside and outside of Taiwan was the appearance of a number of indigenously developed weapon systems. Parade watchers were given a unique look at the 300-kilometer (km)-range surface-to-air system Tien Kung-3 (Sky Bow-3) and the 200-km-range anti-ship missile Hsiung Feng-3 (Brave Wind-3), both designed at Taiwan’s Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology. Also on display was Taiwan’s first indigenously developed unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). [1] The Tien Kung-3 air defense missile, an anti-tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) system similar to the U.S. Patriot II, reportedly took seven years to develop at a total cost of TWD19 billion ($500 million). The supersonic anti-ship Hsiung Feng-3 is capable of reaching Mach 2 and can be launched from a Cheng Kung class frigate. [2] The Cheng Kung is directly derived from the U.S. Perry class frigate. [3]

Many analysts interpreted the display of fire power as a clear sign that Taiwan’s leadership – particularly President Chen – sought to demonstrate that the island had the ability to deter Beijing. Indeed, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Lee Tien-yu declared that one purpose for the exhibition of military equipment in this year’s parade was to make “the Chinese Communists …. aware that Taiwan is tough.” [4] Although Beijing is undoubtedly “aware” of the recent military developments in Taiwan, China’s public reaction to the parade and the equipment on display was muted; there was little mention of the Taiwanese festivities in the mainland national press.

Concerns Over Taiwan’s Offensive Capabilities
One system notably absent from the National Day demonstration was the Hsiung Feng-2E (HF-2E) land-attack cruise missile. Although military officials stated that the HF-2E was still under development and therefore not ready for public display, many analysts have argued that the removal of this system from the parade line-up was likely due to concerns over negative reactions in Beijing and Washington. [5] Due to the substantial range of the HF-2E, many military analysts view it as an offensive system, and its deployment has been a significant concern to those interested in managing current cross-Strait tensions.

Taiwan’s most recent test of the HF-2E system was held on February 2, 2007. [6] Although the missile reached a range of about 600 km during this test, a number of military analysts have estimated that this system could reach up to 1,000 km with a payload capacity of 400 kilograms (kg). [7] That higher range would mean that the system could potentially threaten major cities and financial centers in China, including Shanghai. China’s press has played down the threat of the HF-2E and has focused on various weaknesses in the system. [8] Military analysts, both inside and outside of China, have pointed out that one on-going problem with the further development of this missile system is its lack of adequate guidance capabilities. Without foreign assistance – which does not appear to be forthcoming from U.S. or European governments – Taiwanese engineers will have difficulty fully overcoming this deficiency. Because the HF-2E’s capabilities would place it in the category of powerful missiles whose proliferation the 34-member Missile Technology Control Regime seeks to restrain, the regime’s most stringent export restrictions would apply to transfers of technology to support the system. [9]

In the weeks and months leading up to the National Day parade, a number of reports in local and international media surfaced indicating that Taipei’s military leadership had plans to construct missile facilities for deployment of the HF-2E and other missile systems in the Taiwan-controlled Matsu Island chain. At its closest point, the island group is about 16 kilometers off the coast of mainland China. [10] According to one Taiwanese media report, funding for the bases had been authorized in the 2008 military budget and approved by the Taiwanese legislature. The text of the military budget made available to the public listed funds for items such as: “construction and renovation of military camps; the purchase of camouflage paints to disguise missile positions; and anti-infrared ray camouflage net for missile ground equipment area.” [11] According to this Taiwanese press report, under the classified “secret budget” of Taiwan’s Missile Command Headquarters these funds are actually intended to finance the surface-to-surface missile facilities. [12]

Taiwanese officials reportedly briefed their U.S. counterparts about their plans for deploying missiles in September 2007, and the U.S. officials made clear their concern about a weapon such as the HF-2E – with clear offensive capabilities – being deployed by Taiwan. [13] Taipei’s plans appear to have been put on hold at least temporarily, largely because of Bush Administration concerns that the deployment would destabilize the Taiwan Strait. [14] In what some have construed as an effort to ease Taipei’s concerns about the island’s growing military imbalance vis-à-vis China, the Pentagon announced plans in September 2007 to sell surplus submarine-hunting P-3C Orion aircraft and air-defense missiles to Taiwan. The total package could cost over $2.23 billion. As part of the package for the P-3C, Taiwan would also receive U.S. assistance in integrating its intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance networks. [15]

China’s leadership has kept a close eye on missile developments in Taiwan. One recent report on a Chinese news website noted that some military officials in Taiwan had been discussing plans to increase the HF-2E’s range to 2,000 km, which would put Beijing within range. [16] In September 2007, coinciding with Taiwan’s push for membership at the UN and international media reports on Taiwan’s possible further development of the HF-2E, authorities in Shanghai held the city’s largest air raid drill since 1949. (For more on China’s interest in the HF-2E development, see “China Eyes Taiwanese Cruise Defensive Missile Developments with Concern,” WMD Insights, November 2006.)

Despite Washington’s concerns and alleged on-going technical problems in the missile system, the Taiwanese government appears intent upon beginning serial production of the HF-2E by 2008. The push for the system appears primarily aimed at counterbalancing China’s growing missile deployments; the most recent estimates point to over 900 PRC offensive missiles within striking distance of Taiwan. [17]

Chen’s UN Aspirations Raise Tension
With the end of his second and last term close at hand, President Chen Shuibian has been increasingly vocal about Taiwanese statehood, despite obvious signals from the Bush Administration that Washington will not support destabilizing moves that threaten the current status quo. Chen noted in his National Day address that the UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 – which was passed on October 25, 1971 and made the government in Beijing the sole representative of China at the UN – “neither defined Taiwan as a part of the People’s Republic of China nor affirmed the proposition that the People’s Republic of China has any right to sovereignty over Taiwan.” Chen also declared that Taiwan and China are two sovereign, independent nations and that the current problems over the Taiwan Strait “do not derive from Taiwan, which respects freedom, democracy, and human rights, but from China, which is still under totalitarian, dictatorial rule.” [18]

Chen’s October 10 speech came only weeks after Taiwan made its 15th attempt to rejoin the UN. On September 21, 2007, a small number of UN member states that continue to have diplomatic relations with Taipei failed to get the issue of Taiwan’s membership added to the UN General Assembly’s agenda. [19] Although Taiwanese officials did not expect this bid to be successful, they had hoped to stimulate an international debate on the issue of Taiwan’s status. [20]

The long simmering issue of Taiwanese statehood is quickly nearing the boiling point in cross-Strait relations, especially with the efforts by the Chen Administration to hold a national referendum on whether the island should apply to the UN under the name “Taiwan,” instead of the “Republic of China”. If supporters of the referendum can garner enough signatures by the end of October, then the measure could be placed on the same ballot as the March 2008 presidential election. Chen has made it clear that such a resolution is a clear step towards establishing a sovereign state separate from mainland China, an outcome Beijing resolutely opposes. After Chen’s speech, the spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Chinese State Council argued that “Chen’s scheme of ‘Taiwan independence’ is doomed to fail.” The spokesperson further reiterated Beijing’s position that Taiwan would never be allowed to separate from the “motherland.” [21]

Conclusion
The recent rancor between Beijing and Taipei has significantly raised bilateral political tensions. Although activities by Taiwan’s government have been the impetus for the recent uptick in such tensions, Beijing’s inflexibility on a number of political issues and its continued missile build-up aimed at Taiwan have also contributed to current stresses. Economic and social ties between China and Taiwan, which are growing at a rapid pace, continue to buffer the political animosity between the leadership on both sides, and, in the long term, could create the basis for a peaceful and lasting resolution of this decades-long stalemate. However, in the near term, China and Taiwan are facing a number of potential challenges that could be flashpoints for military confrontation. The United States and the larger international community will need to monitor events carefully and stay prepared to help dampen potential crises before they can escalate.

Stephanie Lieggi – Monterey Institute James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies