In recent weeks, there has been renewed Chinese media focus on U.S. space weapons development. Press stories and media analyses have focused on: current U.S. research and development activities in space weapons and future deployment scenarios; space as a new strategic frontier and U.S. plans for maintaining dominance in this environment; and the implications for China’s security interests.

Chinese analysts closely watch U.S. military space and space weaponization developments. Key U.S. documents on the military uses of space, in particular those issued by the U.S. Air Force, are the focal points of their interest, which centers on the Pentagon’s specific steps for organizing space combat forces, developing space weapons systems, and formulating space control theory.

First, Chinese observers have commented on what they view as the increasing tilt toward militarization of U.S. space policy of late, an orientation that has eroded the 1996 Presidential Decision Directive on space policy and reshaped subsequent budgetary decisions of the Clinton Administration, which were more cautious on the development of space-based weapons. [1] Over the past few years, these observers note, the Bush Administration has released a series of documents that emphasize the growing importance of space for maintaining U.S. primacy in the future. They cite the Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy report of March 2005, for example, as placing space on a par with land, maritime, air, and cyberspace, as one of the five “spaces” critical to continued U.S. military dominance. They cite the February 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review as identifying similar enhancement of space combat capabilities as a key area for the U.S. military. [2] [3]

Second, Chinese analysts note that the United States has significantly increased investment for space weapons and missile defense development, as evidenced by the $23 billion allocated for this area in the FY 2006 defense budget. [2]

Third, the United States is seen to be developing a number of space weapons that could be deployed in the future. These include:

1. So-called suicide satellites (or nano-satellites) that perform reconnaissance missions during peacetime and can serve as weapons platforms to attack other space objects during times of conflict;
2. Directed energy weapons, such as space-based high-energy lasers;
   Space mines; and
3. Space-based metal shafts that could strike targets on Earth with enormous force – referred to by Chinese writers as “metallurgical nukes.” [2]

Finally, Chinese analysts clearly see U.S. development of space weapons as reflecting Washington’s long-term strategic intention of maintaining dominance, not only in the civilian space arena, but also in the military sphere. Military use of space for reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, communication, navigation, and weather forecasting is already a reality. What is worrisome for Chinese observers is the weaponization of the space environment. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty bans only the deployment of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in space, but does not ban deployments of other classes of weapons in orbit. Should the United States deploy weapons in space, Chinese analysts fear that this could trigger a new arms race – possibly with Russia – but other countries may also be forced to react, which would have serious consequences for the peaceful use of space and pose a direct threat to China’s national security interests. China’s limited space assets and, potentially, ground support facilities could face attack, which, in turn, could paralyze the country’s satellite systems, causing havoc in both the civil and military sectors. [4] (Editor’s note: For many years, China has sought discussions on “Preventing an Arms Race in Outer Space” (PAROS) at the Geneva-based Conference on Disarmament, but talks on this topic have not yet been undertaken in the forum due to U.S. opposition.)

Some Chinese analysts also point out the potential double-edged nature of U.S. space weapons, in that their deployment could stimulate others to develop comparable systems, including anti-satellite systems, which might place U.S. space assets at risk and undermine a key element of U.S. security. Currently, the United States is the predominant user of space, with half of the current 800 satellites now in operation. [4] [5]

Chinese observations reflect a deeper concern over the implications for Chinese security of U.S. domination of outer space and the possible weaponization of space. Space weaponization and the deployment of missile defense systems threaten to neutralize China’s limited nuclear deterrence – currently with 20 or so ICBMs capable of reaching the continental United States. This could force China to devote greater resources to speed up its nuclear force modernization efforts and develop countermeasures. These developments, while largely defensive from China’s perspective, could be seen by Washington as evidence of China’s intention to challenge U.S. dominance both in space and in East Asia.

In addition to these issues, China is also concerned that the United States is seeking to restrict China’s participation in international cooperation on civilian space programs. With the recent successful launch of Shenzhou-VI, China has established itself as the third country capable of manned flight. Chinese analysts note that there is some indication that Washington may reconsider its current policy of not cooperating with China on civilian space programs. Rep. Rick Larsen (D, Was), co-chair of the House China Working Group, who led a delegation to China in January that included a trip to the Jiuquan Space Launch Center, revealed that Sino-U.S. space cooperation would be on the agenda when Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Washington in April. [6]

Jing-Dong Yuan – Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies