In recent months, India has announced the official end of the indigenous Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP), signaling that ongoing and future missile projects will now actively consider foreign and private sector partners. Foreign collaboration is slated to become a more prominent feature of New Delhi’s defense technological projects, and active discussions on missile development and space cooperation with potential foreign collaborators, such as Israel, France, and U.S. defense companies, are now underway. In parallel with these efforts, India’s quest for a missile defense system also advanced with the testing of a second fledgling prototype interceptor.

India Signals Conclusion of IGMDP, Openly Seeks Foreign Collaboration
In December 2007, press reports indicated that India’s quarter-century- old IGMDP would be concluded at the end of 2008. [1] Since the 1980s, the IGMDP has provided a framework for development of India’s ballistic missile capabilities, including the intermediate-range Agni and the short-range Prithvi missiles, as well as the latter’s naval variant, the Dhanush. (For more analyses of India’s missile developments, see, “India and Pakistan Missile Race Surges On,” WMD Insights, October 2007.) The IGMDP will not oversee future development of missile systems, and while strategic projects such as long-range nuclear-capable missiles could continue to be developed “in house,” other projects will consider foreign collaboration. [2] According to a senior official of the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), India’s missile projects will now try to emulate the experience of a joint Indo-Russian venture, the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile. [3]

While DRDO officials have announced that conclusion of the IGMDP was premised on the completion of the program’s diverse projects, Indian analysts have pointed out that a number of them, particularly the Trishul and Akash missiles, have not measured up to their stated objectives. (DRDO has been notoriously secretive regarding the progress of its missile projects. For instance, after years of development, it remains unclear whether the 700-kilometer (km)-range undersea Sagarika missile tested on February 26 is a cruise or a ballistic missile.)

Moreover, DRDO’s difficulties with project management and systems integration have opened it up to frequent criticism because of escalating costs, delays, and failures in multiple non-IGMDP projects. [4] This has been the case with the “indigenous” Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), for which India has sought collaboration and technology transfers from France, Russia, Israel, and the United States in order to ensure completion of the already 25-year-old project by 2012. [5] Another setback came with the Indian Army’s decision to purchase license-produced Russian T-90S tanks instead of DRDO’s embattled Arjun Main Battle Tank, developed over three decades to meet the Army’s specifications.

In light of IGMDP’s official conclusion, Indian officials have already indicated swift approval of a joint development program with Israel for a long-range surface-to-air missile system for the Indian Navy. [6] However, allegations of corruption in two major deals with Israel—the Barak anti-missile defense system and the Phalcon airborne warning system—may dampen enthusiasm in some quarters for extensive joint collaboration efforts between the two countries. [7]

France, too, may soon become a key player in the future plans of Indian defense production agencies. After French President Nicholas Sarkozy’s visit to New Delhi in January 2008, France signaled its intention to win a portion of the Indian defense market by engaging in closer collaboration with India on several projects. Among these prospective projects are upgrades to India’s aging fleet of French-supplied Mirage fighters, as well as the development of additional Scorpene diesel submarines; the latter may be fitted with the sea-launched version of the BrahMos cruise missile. [8] Aside from platform upgrades, Paris, which is also competing in the 126 multi-role fighter tender by the Indian Air Force, has offered New Delhi short-range missile systems and joint manufacturing of aircraft engine components. [9] However, India has been frustrated since 2006 with France’s refusal to commit to the “transfer of critical [missile-related] technologies.” [10] Statements upon conclusion of Sarkozy’s visit indicate that France may have finally begun to reconsider its reluctance to go “beyond the buyer-seller relationship” with New Delhi, a move that may potentially play a crucial role in India’s missile program. [11] As a participant in the Missile Technology Control Regime, however, France may face limitations on the scale of technology sharing it can offer. The regime’s rules restrict transfers of technology for the production of missiles able to carry weapons of mass destruction, defined as systems able to carry a 500 kilogram (kg) payload to a distance of 300 km or more.

Russia Moves to Solidify Space and Missile Collaboration
In recent months, Moscow, also a competitor in the 126 fighter tender, has maneuvered to retain its advantage as New Delhi’s dominant defense collaborator in the space and missile spheres. Russia’s efforts have met with mixed results, however, as India has repeatedly expressed its frustration with the quality of Russian technology. For example, in January, New Delhi rejected a refitted Kilo-class submarine, the INS Sindhuvijay, citing the failure of the newly installed Klub (SS-N-27) cruise missile. [12] (For more on Russia’s submarine collaboration with India, see “Questions Persist on Reported Russian Lease of Nuclear Sub to India,” WMD Insights, December 2007-January 2008.)

Russo-Indian space collaboration received a boost when Russia’s request to take part in the second segment of India’s unmanned lunar mission project, Chandrayaan, was finally granted in November 2007. Russia’s Roskosmos and the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) signed a 10-year agreement on joint lunar exploration, which would allow Russia and India to jointly place an unmanned rover on the surface of the moon. [13] Roskosmos chief Anatoliy Perminov specified that Russia was engaging India “in carrier rockets, their components, dual-use systems, the global navigational satellite system GLONASS, and mission control and ground tracking equipment.” [14] New Delhi has also been given access to the military GLONASS signals, while its Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) rocket is set to launch GLONASS satellites. [15] This expansion of collaboration came as ISRO successfully tested an indigenous cryogenic engine for its next GSLV on November 15, 2007, intended to replace the engine imported from Russia in the 1990s. [16] (See “U.S.-India Space Cooperation Reaches New Heights, Despite Lingering Proliferation Concerns,” WMD Insights, July/August 2006; “Russian Military is Working to Enhance Precision Targeting and Early Warning Capabilities,” WMD Insights, December 2007/January 2008.)

The BrahMos Project Cruises Along at Supersonic Speed
The 290-km-range BrahMos supersonic cruise missile (just below the MTCR threshold of concern), a decade-long joint venture between India’s DRDO and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya, has seen several major developments during the past few months. (For the recent history of the venture, see “India and Pakistan Missile Race Surges On,” WMD Insights, October 2007.) Reportedly, the development of BrahMos variants for the Indian Army and Navy concluded and their production continued steadily throughout 2007. [17] However, the air-launched variant of the missile for the Indian Air Force, set to be installed on Russian Sukhoi-30 MKI fighters, is reportedly experiencing delays and will not be tested until 2009; it will initially undergo integration with the IL-38 maritime patrol aircraft. [18]

India’s current production capacity at the BrahMos facility at Hyderabad reportedly allows for manufacture of 100 missiles per year; press reports indicate that half of these missiles are intended for export. [19] The 2008 domestic production goal set for the BrahMos, which is “geared towards touching 50 [missiles per year] in the near future,” appears to remain unchanged from previous years. [20]

In December 2007, BrahMos Aerospace moved to increase production capacity by acquiring the facilities of Kerala Hightech Industries Limited (KELTEC), a public enterprise which has previously worked closely with ISRO. [21] According to The Hindu, a new “full-fledged missile assembling unit,” KELTEC (since renamed BrahMos Aerospace (Trivandrum) Ltd.) will support both India’s domestic procurement needs, as well as its export aspirations. [22] DRDO Chief Controller and BrahMos Aerospace head, Dr. Sivathanu Pillai, indicated that the new “missile integration” facility, which is essential to “augment” the production of the BrahMos, would come online in 2010. [23] Russian officials will reportedly provide on-site training at the new facility. [24]

Meanwhile, it appears that the year-long dispute between Moscow and New Delhi over exports of the BrahMos – Russia is afraid that the missile will compete against its own cruise missile offerings on the export market – remains unresolved. (See “India’s Missile Program: Diverging Trajectories,” WMD Insights, February 2007). In January 2008, Pillai declined to respond to press queries on the matter. [25] However, Indian officials have since indicated that the two countries would soon “shortlist” potential customers, identified only as “friendly countries.” [26] As WMD Insights previously reported, Brazil, Chile, Kuwait, Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Africa have allegedly shown interest in the system.

Collaboration between Russia and India received a boost when the partners announced entry into the design phase of a hypersonic version of the BrahMos, called BrahMos-2. In January 2008, Pillai stated that the missile would be “readied in 4-5 years.” [27] Press reports in both countries have emphasized the Mach 5 speed of the BrahMos-2, its platform “versatility,” and its technological sophistication. Moreover, Russian commentary that the missile would be able to “overcome any air defense system” was echoed in Indian papers, which stated that BrahMos-2 would “pierce through any present and future air defence system.” [28]

It has been reported that “more than 20 Russian plants and design bureaus” would participate in the project. However, the division of labor between the two countries remains unclear. [29] The supersonic version of the BrahMos utilized the two-stage integrated rocket/ramjet propulsion system, designed and manufactured by Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya. [30] Some figures in Indian defense circles have repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the terms of the joint venture, under which India has no claim to “total transfer” of the Russian technology. As recently as February 2008, former Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) chairman C.G. Krishnadas Nair was quoted as saying that Russia was denying India the BrahMos engine technology and would eventually hold India “to ransom.” [31]

According to press reports, Pillai has indicated that the engine for the BrahMos-2, powered by advanced ramjet/scramjet technology, may be “developed by India.” [32] While Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya and NPO Raduga have both reportedly experimented with hypersonic ramjet technology, Moscow is unlikely to agree to the full transfer of this technology that India desires. [33] India, however, has also collaborated with Israel on the development of a hypersonic technology demonstrator vehicle (HSTDV), which would utilize a scramjet engine; however, the scope of cooperation and the likely outcome of this project are unclear. [34] In February 2007, Pillai was quoted as saying that India was working on an “advanced hypersonic reusable missile.” [35] Some reports indicate that the HSTDV will be soon tested, while others argue that the project has stalled. [36]

India’s Missile Shield Makes Progress
In recent years, the Indian political establishment has embraced the development of missile defenses in light of evolving threat perceptions of China and the prospect of defense technology cooperation with the United States. [37] Since 9/11, New Delhi has been working on a missile shield, among other reasons, because it fears that if Pakistan lost control of its nuclear weapons, cities in India would be under threat. Also, in such a scenario, India’s nuclear deterrent would be of no use against the rogue groups that might control elements of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal. [38] Senior Indian defense scientists contend that the missile defense system under development could be operational by 2011 and ready to intercept up to 25 incoming ballistic missiles with ranges up to 2,000 km. [39] If judged on the basis of U.S. missile defense development efforts to date, however, this claim appears to be highly optimistic in terms of both time and intercept capability. [40] According to press reports, the DRDO has invested as much as $500 million in the project, which includes collaborations with Israeli Aerospace Industries and the French Thales Group. [41]

The first test of the fledgling missile defense system was successfully conducted in November 2006, when the Prithvi Air Defense (PAD) interceptor missile hit a Prithvi-II missile at an exo-atmospheric altitude of 50 km. [42] On December 6, 2007, the Indian defense scientists carried out a second successful test, as the Advanced Air Defense (AAD) missile reportedly hit an incoming Prithvi surface-to-surface missile at an endo-atmospheric altitude of 15 km. [43] The stated aim for 2008 is to begin the integration the two layers (involving the AAD and PAD interceptors) to form an overall air defense system. [44]

The system includes two radars: (1) the Long Range Tracking Radar, used in the exo-atmospheric interceptor system and derived from the Israeli Green Pine radar system, two of which were acquired by India in 2001-02, and (2) the Multi-Function Fire Control Radar. [45] In the December test, Israeli and French radars were also deployed. [46] Further, there has also been speculation, though no official confirmation, that the AAD interceptor missile could be modified into a new surface-to-surface missile named “Ashvin.” [47]

Indian defense scientists have also expressed interest in developing a defense system against cruise missiles in the next three years. In December 2007, for example, DRDO Chief Controller V.K. Saraswat stated: “Our interceptor capability can engage the cruise missile, but we need to augment more systems, like an airborne tracking system, before our anti-cruise missile capability is complete.” [48]

Missile Defense Cooperation Discussed With U.S. Contractors
In January 2008, following India’s December test, reports surfaced of preliminary discussions between the Indian government and U.S. defense prime contractor Lockheed-Martin to develop New Delhi’s missile defense system. [49] Lockheed-Martin, which recently concluded a $1 billion contract to supply the Indian Air Force with six C-130 Hercules transport aircraft and is competing in the 126 fighter tender, appears optimistic on missile defense cooperation with New Delhi. According to one senior Lockheed official, India could be looking for “hit to kill” technology for its interceptor missiles. [50]

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has already reportedly held talks with the Indian government on missile-defense issues, promoting Lockheed/Raytheon’s Patriot Advanced Capability-3 anti-missile batteries. [51] According to one analyst, India’s missile defense project could receive a relatively quick boost, especially if mobile radar, sensors and command and control elements were combined. [52]

While initial discussions have alledgedly been taking place, statements by top Indian officials have so far downplayed any strategic partnership with the United States on missile defense issues. In late October 2007, Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee stated that India did not intend to be a part of the U.S. missile defense framework. [53] However, India has in the past been keen to acquire the Arrow missile defense system, jointly developed by Israel and the United States, though these attempts have been repeatedly blocked by Washington. (See “Pakistan’s Missile Tests Highlight Growing South Asia Nuclear Arms Race, Despite New Confidence Building Measures,” WMD Insights, April 2007.) Even though India has shown interest in collaboration with the United States and Israel on its missile defense program, New Delhi may also consider purchasing Russia’s S-300PMU2 Favorit missile defense system, which Moscow has promoted at Indian defense exhibitions. [54]

Strategic Implications for the Region,
Pakistani Response
According to prominent Indian analyst K. Subrahmanyam, because of Islamabad’s expansion of its missile arsenal, New Delhi must increase the “uncertainly levels for Pakistan” through a missile defense system since, unlike Pakistan, India has a stated no-first-use policy. [55] However, another prominent analyst, Bharat Karnad, questions the financial commitment to the missile defense project, stating that the focus for Indian defense planners should instead be on missile acquisition. [56] Analysts have also placed India’s missile defense program in the broader Asian balance of power context that includes Japan’s expansion of its missile defense capability and China’s anti-satellite test in January 2007. [57]

While the latest missile defense test has been hailed as a significant achievement, Indian analysts have been circumspect, pointing out that these are merely the initial steps in a lengthy development program. Further, some in New Delhi have expressed worries that Islamabad will take corrective measures against a future Indian missile shield by adding longer-range missiles and increasing missile numbers with systems carrying dummy warheads to neutralize Indian missile defense batteries. [58] While Pakistani officials have not made explicit comments in response to the missile defense tests, Pakistan carried out previously scheduled tests of its 700 km-range Babur cruise missile in December 2007, as well as tests of its nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in January-February 2008 – the 1,300 km-range Ghauri, the 700 km-range Shaheen-I, and the 290 km-range Ghaznavi. [59] With the South Asia missile race continuing to accelerate, a number of analysts are urging that the bilateral peace process be strengthened so that mutual threat perceptions can be eased and pressures for arms racing reduced. [60]

India Launches Israeli Spy Satellite
On January 21, 2008, India conducted the successful launch of an Israeli military satellite known as TecSAR/Polaris. [61] The launch was carried out as part of an agreement concluded during the 2004-05 visit to New Delhi of the Director-General of the Israeli Defence Ministry, Amos Yaron. [62] The launch was originally scheduled for September 2007 but was postponed reportedly due to either U.S. or Iranian pressure on the Indian government. [63]

The 300-kg satellite, known as “TecSAR”, Israel’s most advanced to date, was launched by a Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) rocket from the Sriharikota Space Center. [64] TecSAR, manufactured by the Israel Aerospace Industries’ Space Division, is reportedly capable of delivering high-resolution imagery of about 10 centimeters through its synthetic aperture radar. [65] According to Israeli press reports, the satellite is set to greatly boost Tel Aviv’s ability to conduct surveillance of Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities. Other instruments on the satellite will enable Israel to tap into Iranian communications. [66] Indian analysts have argued that the TecSAR, which augments the capabilities of the Israeli Ofeq satellites, would provide crucial intelligence if Israel considered military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities in the future. [67]

While New Delhi has justified the launch by citing its commercial benefits, some reports have hinted that India, which presently does not have its own military satellite in orbit, might be able to access Pakistan-related intelligence from TecSAR. [68] After several reports in 2007 of an impending launch of India’s Cartosat 2A military satellite, the launch is now scheduled for March-April 2008. [69] The Cartosat 2A will contain an Israeli-made advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar, and will also reportedly provide India the capability to monitor Chinese and Pakistani missile launches. [70]

Iranian ambassador to India, Syed Mahdi Nabizadeh, asserted that New Delhi should have given greater consideration to the political implications of its decision to launch an Israeli satellite. Nabizadeh stated that Tehran hoped that “wise and independent countries such as India would not give their space technology to other countries to launch instruments for spying on friendly countries like Iran.” [71] On February 3, 2008, Iran launched a research rocket into space, reportedly similar to its 1,300-1,800 km range Shahab-3 ballistic missile. [72]

The main Indian leftist party, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), also protested New Delhi’s assistance to Israel on the ground that it aided Tel Aviv’s military plans by enhancing its surveillance capabilities against Iran. [73] The CPI-M had also expressed dissatisfaction with the Indian government’s recent decision not to attend the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline talks in Tehran. [74]

Two more Israeli satellites are due to be launched from India in 2008; however, these missions are yet to be officially confirmed. One of the possible candidates for launch is the Amos-3 communications satellite, which Israel is unable to launch with its Shavit launcher due to geographical constraints. [75]

Conclusion
Recent developments suggest that the Indian defense establishment appears to be more willing to admit its dependence on foreign collaboration in achieving success in its defense projects. India’s willingness to entertain a more flexible missile development framework is crucial in light of India’s quest for a missile defense system. These policy changes come at a time when the Indian defense market is set to grow rapidly and provide plentiful opportunities for technology transfer, first and foremost, through the competitive tender of 126 multi-role fighter aircraft for the Indian Air Force. Private Indian firms are also planning a move into the defense market. For example, at the February 2008 Defexpo in New Delhi, the Tata Group alone signed defense cooperation agreements with Israel Aerospace Industries, Boeing, and the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company (EADS), with more agreements to come in the near future. [76] Thus, the Indian defense production and acquisition sector is set to expand to include more players, as well as more complex linkages and activities. Whether and to what extent these collaborations in the area of missile development may run afoul of the rules of the MTCR remains to be seen, but given India’s missile ambitions and its growing reliance on foreign assistance, difficult choices for the regime’s members could lie ahead.

Adding further fuel to the intensifying missile competition in the region, on February 26 as this article was being readied for publication, the Indian press reported that DRDO carried out a test of a 700 km-range nuclear-capable two-stage submarine-launched missile. Indian reports remain inconclusive on whether the missile, reportedly an outcome of the Sagarika project, designated K-15, is a ballistic or a cruise missile. [77]

Anya Loukianova and Sharad Joshi – Monterey Institute James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies